Every great investment theme is only as reliable as the regulatory framework that supports it. Take a look at the social media stocks — soaring one week, crushed lately when the winds in Washington change. Suddenly $38 billion in wealth vanishes from Facebook and Twitter alone.
The underlying businesses are bona fide cash machines. Nobody can dispute that. But as the regulatory shadow comes and goes, the stocks still swing in the breeze.
As any non-amateur can tell you, investing in the “green revolution” is like that all the time. We all recognize that the fundamentals are astounding. This is a business growing from ZERO to multi-billion-dollar scale, with GENERATIONS of pent-up demand itching for a chance to finally throw legal vendors their money.
But because regulation remains state-to-state and country-to-country, the red tape that comes with staying legal can sometimes get oppressive. Crossing the wrong state lines is a drag. And when enforcement is left in the eye of the enforcer (Jeff Sessions), the stocks go in circles along with Washington’s moods.
It’s a paradox. On the one hand, enormous long-term potential. On the other, frustration and delayed gratification . . . until the industry veterans at New Age Farm Inc. (CSE:NF in Canada or OTC:NWGFF in the States) found an elegant way out of the trap.
They’ve seen it all . . . so they know all the twists and turns in the long regulatory journey so far. But the NWGFF story is still in the earliest stages:
While that boom-and-bust chart looks superficially like a lot of “green rush” stocks, NWGFF has been engineered to bypass the biggest questions around regulation . . . which means, if all goes according to plan, that they’ll avoid a few growing pains and mature FASTER.
Sure, they’re directly exposed to ALL the upside that brings green investors to the yard in the good times. For example, they just bought an 11-acre farm in greener-than-green Oregon with full recreational cultivation permits and the Portland dispensary to match.
Figure about 5 grams per square foot and just one “luxurious” outdoor crop a year, that’s easily
$1 million in cash flow at current prices, purely on the farm end. Management is hoping to double the cultivation space soon, so you can do that math.
Naturally the retail end generates its own cash and has done it for four years already. This isn’t another startup muscling into the Wild West and hoping that the green tide will lift all boats. As long as Oregon remains friendly, that cash keeps flowing.
Sounds great, right? In the green economy, it was a big score, transferring $3 MILLION in revenue-generating assets to NWGFF in a single bound. And when the green stocks went stratospheric up in Canada around the $4 BILLION team-up between giant beer brewer Constellation and local green grower Canopy, NWGFF was front and center.
(These days the green stocks rule the roost up in Canada in terms of both volume and upswing. And yet we still can’t refer to the industry by name here for fear of tripping robot censors. Which is what makes NWGFF so special.)
When times are good, NWGFF has proved it can move as fast as any pure green play. But the management team has seen all this play out before. The CEO practically grew up helping to build the Colorado medicinal market from the ground up . . . dispensaries, cultivation, extracts.
That operation went national. He got into wholesale, then accepted a buyout offer barely two years later. Now he’s living large, involved in “boutique investments” and all the trimmings.
But he loves the industry. And recently he recognized that the boom and bust around regulation just wasn’t worth the drag.
When the regulatory threat relaxes like when Canada legalizes en masse or when big jurisdictions like New York City refuse to enforce possession laws, the stocks come into their own. But then when DOJ gets into a mood, suddenly this whole multi-billion-dollar enterprise becomes a dirty word and stocks that once looked like balloons turn back into rocks.
So this industry insider pondered. He remembered something. You can’t say certain words but back in the early days of legalization there were peripheral businesses . . . with their own high-growth medicinal and industrial profiles. Those businesses got left by the wayside when “medicinal” turned into “recreational” and the Mile High boom got going.
I can say “hemp,” right? Hemp goes with the green boom like cookies go with cream. It was banned along with the recreational crop and is now making its way back behind the scenes. Theoretically it’s a billion-dollar enterprise in its own right.
And it’s got medicinal applications without the legal question marks that keep Jeff Sessions swinging. Cannabidiol. CBD. No funny factor but it’s in the medical databases. Pain relief. Anticonvulsant. Rumors of an anti-cancer profile.
NWGFF got into the peripheral chemistry in a big way. Back in December, they bought a company that extracts the molecules and processes them into all the next-generation products: vaporizer pens, topical creams, gel capsules, you name it.
Thriving “little” brand there, still as close to the ground floor as it gets. We’re in the early stages here . . . the fun is far from over for early investors as well as those who are only hearing about NWGFF now.
They’ve got the distribution. And you might notice that they’re in states that are FAR from the “usual suspects” like Rocky Mountain High, etc. This “little” product is selling into Florida, Michigan, Ohio, South Carolina, New York. And yeah, they’re buying it in California and Colorado too.
When the map goes through one of its transitory “freeze” cycles, that business doesn’t go away. It doesn’t even flinch. That business is legal. And that’s worth its weight in green gold across the cycle.
Now there are rumors that Jeff Sessions isn’t long for his job. That’s great for the green but until we get long-term regulatory clarity it’s just another spoke in the sentiment wheel taking stocks up and down.
NWGFF has a foot off the wheel into some exciting spaces that have gotten neglected lately. Call it a contrarian c– play or just look at it on its own merits, it’s earned a place on our screen. And if you want to participate, don’t be shy!
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